KIM JONG-UN AND TRUMP FINALLY GET IT ON

I’m a firm believer in speaking my mind and I think most traders are. I think that’s because when I search for opportunities in the market I have to be sure, I mean really sure. There can be no doubt in my mind, not even a flicker of doubt. The moment that doubt enters your mind, the trade is probably lost because you have just entered a new whole world of uncertainty and pain. You doubt everything, you doubt your entry point, the company you have just bought, your analysis, your exit, is your stop-loss too far? is too near? hell – do I even need a stop loss on this trade? – worst of all you doubt yourself. That’s why clarity, absolute clarity, the truth is key. And I can only speak for myself but personally I feel that this idea of truth spills over into my personal life. However, that’s not the only reason. In fact, it’s not even the main reason. The main reason about speaking the truth is that I learned many this lesson many years ago from my ex-wife – she once told me once that there are only two types of people in this world who lie – cowards and cheats. And it’s a lesson I carry with me all of the time because she is right of course. People shouldn’t lie. It’s better to be honest always and I would like to think that people who know me think that of me. They may not always like what I have to say but at least they know that it’s the truth. That’s why I respect people who speak their mind, tell it how it is, don’t lie, are direct with you, and every time you know that they are just going to lay it all on the line because for them there is no grey, just black and white. Now read that sentence back again and tell me which politician, past or present does it most accurately describe. I can probably only think of two politicians, maybe three – Winston Churchill in the old era and Donald Trump in the new era.   The third person was going to be Thatcher but I don’t think that she deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Churchill which is why I not only put her into her own new sentence but I made sure that there was a double space from the last sentence, and that it was in small print (yes, I’m very childish).   The point is that Donald Trump whether we like him or not (overall, I have to say that like him by the way) has done something quite incredible in engineering and executing the most unfathomable and unlikely meeting with the little, fat, cheese-eating dictator himself, Kim Jong-Un. Wow! Think about it, who else could have pulled off that deal? Theresa May? Nope. David Cameron? Nope. Whatever anybody thinks of Trump’s policies you have to give him this one and along the way he did it his way -no political correctness or bureaucracy. You have to take your hat off to the guy for this one, even if you hate his policies. Plus, how can you not love his authenticity? I watched the press conference after the meeting and one of the reporters stood up and asked how Trump could be sure that Kim Jong-Un would follow through with the denuclearisation plan that he had now ‘agreed’ to. Any other politician would have anticipated that question and gone into some pre-rehearsed spiel where they had practised answering that very question a thousand times before in their bathroom mirror – maybe answered with something about strong governance and compliance oversight and engaging with United Nations to provide regulatory audits or some political nonsense like that. Instead Trump looks at the lady straight in the eye and tells her that he can’t know about what Kim Jong-Un will do any more than he knows about how she is going to sit back down on her chair. I mean it was a totally moronic analogy. Completely moronic. It made no sense and that is what I love about this guy. He doesn’t care what he says or does, it seems, and neither should we. The poor lady didn’t know what to say. I mean where does she go from there? Classic Trump. Think about it – three months ago, there was going to be nuclear war and now our loud-mouthed, brash all-American friend across the Pond is sharing cheesy strings with somebody who has an even worse haircut than him. More importantly than the strings and comparative hairstyles of course is the fact that Trump makes things happen. Which brings me onto the investor angle on this whole thing. While people are now watching the news and thinking about the political situation let us not forget that politics and economics go hand in hand. Remember that Trump is a businessman before a politician and one of the main reasons he is getting chummy with his new pal is because China is becoming a major force in South East Asia. Trump is not going to win that Asian battle without a few friends and so working a better relationship with the North Koreans is a massive play for him. Also, and up until now the only way to North Korea was through the Chinese and following Trump’s trade war with them, that access gate was firmly closed. It’s something that the Chinese have had as their trump card (no pun intended) for at least the last 30 odd years, maybe longer. They were the ones that could negotiate to the playground bully, nobody else. Well Trump has just blasted that gate wide open and that weakens the position of China. The other thing that you should watch out for are the potential massive investment opportunities across the Chinese-North Korean borders. Investing directly in North Korea is still some way off but there will be a spill over in the surrounding areas. Looking at South Korea is also another play. Remember if you want to make money you have to be prepared to invest where others are not prepared to – either because they are too scared, they don’t understand or they just miss the opportunity altogether. In this case I think it is all three for most people. The Kim Jong-Un and Trump phenomenon may well be a flash in the pan and they could be at each other’s necks again next week but equally in five years from now you may find North Korea as a serious player in the Far East region and if that’s the case there could be some serious cash to be made. The political landscape in North Korea is unlikely to change and the harsh dictatorship isn’t about to go away but opening the borders for trade is a real possibility now that Trump is in power. No other leader could have pulled it off and I think Trump maybe hasn’t closed the deal just yet but he’s just made it a damn sight easier than what it was before. U-S-A ! U-S-A! U-S-A!😊 You know the Yanks love to sing about themselves, so let’s give them some much deserved credit for this one.